The probability of McCain’s dying in office, redux
The most liberal estimate — i.e., the one that gives McCain the benefit of the doubt and doesn’t factor in the fact that he’s a cancer survivor — says that his probability of dying within the next four years is about 1 in 7; his probability of dying within eight years is about 1 in 3. Thus spake the Social Security Administration. The math is easy: if your probability of dying in a given year is 2%, and your probability of dying in the next year is 3%, then your probability of dying within two years is 1-(1-.02)(1-.03) = 1-(.98*.97) = .05. And so forth.
I’ve been looking for similar tables for melanoma survivors. If anyone can spot them, I’d love to see them.
(Here might be the place, apropos of nothing, to quote John McCarthy: “Those who refuse to do arithmetic are doomed to speak nonsense.”)
My math doesn’t agree with yours: I got a 9.9% chance of dying:
Comment by Dylan Thurston — September 5, 2008 @ 9:31 am
The probabilities you’re using are those for women, not men. :-)
Comment by Steve Laniel — September 5, 2008 @ 9:34 am
I calculate a 1 in 50 chance for Obama dying in the next 4 years.
Comment by Jamie — September 5, 2008 @ 8:44 pm
Since McCain’s mother is still living at 96, his odds might be better.
Comment by Michael — September 7, 2008 @ 4:30 pm
There’s also the fact that the Presidency is like an age accelerator. Have you ever seen pictures of presidents going into office and when they leave? In young, out old.
Comment by mrz — September 7, 2008 @ 7:17 pm
[...] If you needed a perfect example of what’s wrong with the media, the coverage of Sarah Palin is for you. Let’s be clear on something: she lost last night. Badly. She proved that she can only recite the talking points that are in front of her, and it’s clear to anyone who was watching that she is not competent to be the president of the United States. (Unless, that is, you think that someone who is no more intelligent than you or your neighbor should have her finger on the nuclear button.) This is rather important when the GOP presidential candidate has at least a 1 in 7 probability of dying within the next four years. [...]
Pingback by Stephen Laniel’s Unspecified Bunker » The Palin image — October 3, 2008 @ 5:06 pm
[...] P.S. (8 October 2008): I worked out a baseline estimate of the probability. [...]
Pingback by Stephen Laniel’s Unspecified Bunker » The actuarial table on McCain — October 8, 2008 @ 7:59 pm