In response to a friend who posted a thoughtful critique of my post on the Linux “market-share argument”, I started rambling in a response to him. I wrote enough that I think it deserves its own blog post. Here ‘tis.
It seems pretty clear that more eyes will look at Linux bugs than at Windows bugs. The total number of people who could plausibly look at bugs in actual Windows source code is . . . the total number of Microsoft employees? I assume that there’s also some valuable feedback from downstream developers (i.e., at the software companies that make Windows software), but do those developers actually have the resources to properly debug a Windows problem? E.g., will they be able to attach a debugger to the Windows executables and jump to a particular line in the source? I doubt it, though I’m certainly open to correction. I’d assume that the only people who could do a decent debugging job on a Windows bug are people at Microsoft.
Obviously it’s different with the open-source community (and I would use ‘community’ without quotes: it’s a group of people working together toward a common goal, which is about as clear a definition of a community as I’ve seen; by that definition, I don’t think bloggers have any coherent-enough goal to be considered a community). Sure, your mother will not be debugging the Linux gcc compiler, but the pool of potential debuggers scales with the number of users. Assuming that p% of the population could do any worthwhile debugging, and that there are N users of a given piece of Linux software, the total number of available debuggers will be something like pN. That doesn’t mean all of them will, but they’re at least available. The pool is larger than the Microsoft pool.
All of that is speculation, of course. But it seems reasonable.
Then you’re wondering whether the open-source community will be likely to create innovations, or whether it can just fix bugs (if that). That’s open to debate, of course, but the proof will be in the pudding. I suspect what’s really important to desktop users is
- good UI
- coherent feel (which suggests the use of consistent UI APIs across software)
- all the features they need
That last bullet is important: I’m willing to say that most of Microsoft Office is worthless. The last Office upgrade I cared about was MS Office 6; 6 was a great version. Office 2000 adds nothing useful. I find most of XP a waste, too, other than the stability improvements. But then, maybe other people get a lot more use out of Microsoft’s built-in tools, like Outlook and the Media Player. Under Windows, I prefer Mulberry for email and Winamp or QuickTime for various media. I’ve not found a really solid reason to upgrade to XP. I actually liked 2K better.
Which is a long way of saying that from my perspective, the list of features I need isn’t so large, and I could have gotten it several versions ago in Windows. Had Windows 95 been stable enough, I would have been fine with that. I’m looking for an OS that doesn’t crash, and that makes it easy for me to
- watch movies
- rip CDs
- burn CDs
- do basic office tasks, and some not-so-basic office tasks
- do basic file operations
I know I’m missing stuff, but those are the basics.
Where’s innovation in there? What innovation do users really seek out? (This is non-rhetorical: I’m quite open to the possibility that I’ve misunderstood users.)
UI innovation is a biggie, I guess. But I don’t think Windows was an innovator there. Windows 95 is a recycled Mac. Windows 3.1 and before were not easy to use, so they’re out of the running. Windows 98 is recycled Win95 with some stability problems. Win2K and WinXP include some slight modifications to Win95/98, but they’re more or less the same thing.
As for the financial incentives for closed-source software: I think companies are more and more realizing that what’s bad for Microsoft is good for them. Apple, Sun, and IBM are all lined up behind open-source, at least in some token way. I think even the financial argument for closed-source software is going to fall away. Maybe not soon, but bit by bit.
This is all speculation, of course. It’s largely ass-talking, but at least half-informed ass-talking: I’ve used all the OSes that I’m rambling about, and I’ve seen how others use them. I’ve realized recently that my perception of how people use computers is colored by the incredibly tech-savvy people with whom I spend my time. Most people do not know how to use computers very well; most have to rely on a smart friend or an IT department to tell them how to do anything. I recently helped a very smart guy to play a different track than the one he was currently playing under Windows Media Player. I.e., I don’t think the Windows UI is all that intuitive, and I doubt its usability is all that hard a tower to knock over. And if it is, we can do it in the same way that Microsoft beat the Mac at its own game: by mimicking. There’s nothing wrong with that; everyone does it.